Deconstructing The Unskilled-And-Unaware Problem: Examining The Effect of Feedback on Misestimation While Disentangling Cognitive Bias From Statistical Artifact

The Unskilled-and-Unaware Problem (UUP) describes the phenomenon where poor performers tend to overestimate their abilities while high performers underestimate theirs. Dunning (2011) argues that the misestimations of low and high performers result from two separate deficits in metacognitive ability. An alternate explanation provided by Krueger and Mueller (2002) suggests that the observed results are a product of the better-than-average (BTA) heuristic and the statistical artifact of regression to the mean. This study controlled for this statistical artifact by reducing measurement error. I also tested the metacognition explanation by examining the effects of different forms of feedback on misestimation. Results generally replicated previous research in that there was a strong negative relationship between performance and misestimation. Additionally, misestimations lessened somewhat over time, demonstrating a calibration effect that was greatest for participants with more extreme scores. However, calibration was not attributable to direct feedback, and calibration was seen even for participants who did not receive feedback. These results imply that individuals may need feedback more verisimilar to that of their everyday experiences to better utilize it to inform their self-assessments and reduce misestimation. This has implications for improving our interactions in instructional and other performance-based settings.