Rational Choice or Capricious Whim? Analyzing the Decision-Making behind Cuban Economic Reform

Rational choice theory offers an alternative perspective. This method argues that decision makers make choices that reflect a preference between outcomes. Such utility maximization offers a degree of flexibility. As Geddes notes (2000), analysts do not need to assume that personal gain (material gain) is the sole objective of decision-makers. A careful study of goals, context, and information can provide a framework for assessing decision-making under the rational actor model. How capricious is economic decision-making in Cuba? Is Fidel Castro a rational actor or an erratic tyrant? In an effort to answer these questions, I apply the rational actor model to four economic decisions undertaken by Cuba in the past decade and a half. These policies fall into two critical areas: currency and foreign investment. Were the decisions announced by Fidel Castro rational?